- How much longer can USD/JPY hold under 150? The USD is supported by yields, economy
- Japan fin min Suzuki verbal yen intervention comments – will take appropriate steps
- Oil has dropped further in Asia time trade
- First 3 days of China holiday, China’s domestic trips +75.8% y/y
- Italian “supermajor” oil company Eni SPA CEO said deeper OPEC+ production cuts unlikely
- USD/JPY intervention: “150 remains a closely watched figure, not a clear line in the sand”
- Australian data: August building permits , home loans both up m/m
- Goldman Sachs baseline forecast is that the Fed, ECB, BoE will hold rates until late 2024
- RBA policy announcement due Tuesday, 3 October 2023 – preview
- More from Fed’s Mester: Will keep rates restrictive to get inflation down
- Fed’s Mester says its likely the FOMC will need to raise rates one more time this year
- UK data – BRC shop price inflation 6.2% y/y in September (vs. 6.9% in August)
- Goldman’s: China’s oil demand oil supported by record internal mobility, & is sustainable
- BoA have hiked their forecasts for Japanese inflation – core CPI above 2% through 2025
- Australian Weekly ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey 78.2 (prior 76.4)
- RBA policy decision due Tuesday, 3 October 2023 (Sydney time) – “a certain hold”
- Goldman Sachs say equity sell off made valuations for technology stocks historically cheap
- Nomura forecasts EUR/USD to 1.02, toward parity is “very possible” if oil price stays firm
- Ford temporarily lays off workers in Chicago & Ohio due to strike impact
- Citi Says Oil to Collapse to Low $70s in 2024
- New Zealand Q3 business confidence -53% (vs. -63% in Q2)
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 2 Oct. USD/yields move higher after better PMI data
- ICYMI – Pershing Square’s Ackman said the US economy beginning to slow, & the Fed is done
- US equities hang on for a gain as the Nasdaq leads the way
- Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 3 October 2023
It
was a subdued session following on from an active Monday in the US.
Yields are an important driver for the higher USD against other major
FX and indeed the dollar remained bid here, albeit in limited ranges.
USD/JPY
ticked a little higher still, up towards 149.90 but still shying away
from the 150 round number level. Japan finance minister Suzuki was
out with the usual sort of verbal intervention on the pair. While his
comments were pretty much more of the same and are somewhat hollow
the pair did hold under 150 (as I post) so perhaps Suzuki gets some
credit for that.
Federal
Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester spoke on her
economic outlook before the 50 Club of Cleveland Monthly Meeting,
saying that she expects one more Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
rate hike this year. Mester has been persistently hawkish, but did
dial it back a little today in the rest of her comments.
Data
from New Zealand and Australia was non-impactful, both the NZD and
AUD dribbled lower but local data are not drivers to the extent that
US moves are.
The
Reserve Bank of Australia is still to come, the Bank is expected to
leave its cash rate on hold at 4.1% but skew hawkish in Governor
Bullock’s Statement. Previews (more are linked in these posts below):
Asian
equity markets:
-
Japan’s Nikkei 225 -0.6%
-
China’s Shanghai Composite 0% … China is on holidays all this week
-
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -3% … reopened today after holiday Monday
-
South Korea’s KOSPI 0% … closed for a holiday
-
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -1%
USD/JPY continues to knock on the door at 150