- Japan finance minister Suzuki says will respond in FX moves are excessive
- Saudi Aramco says China India are especially driving oil demand despite economic headwinds
- OPEC forecasts rising global oil demand, to 110mn barrels per day by 2045
- S&P cuts its China GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.2% from 5.5% – expects uneven growth pace
- The PBOC set onshore yuan at its weakest since early November 2022, plus big OMO injection
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2056 (vs. estimate at 7.2095)
- Heads up folks, the July (27, 28) Bank of Japan meeting is going to be huge – YCC pivot
- More from the BOJ June meeting summary: One member called for early revision of YCC policy
- USD/JPY lower after the BOJ says CPI may not drop below 2%
- BOJ says strong chance CPI will moderate, but not to back below 2% by mid fiscal year
- Japan PPI Services for May +1.6% y/y (vs. expected +1.8%) prev 1.6%)
- MUFG is looking for EUR/USD to trade to 1.15, cite higher highs, higher lows
- Japan’s yen intervention guy says will respond if FX moves become excessive – verbal.
- Here we go, oil prices now higher after the failed coup attempt in Russia
- Oil futures are open for trade, Little change from Friday’s close after failed Russia coup
- UK Times says Britain told to “Prepare for fall of Putin”
- China‘s foreign minister met with Russian deputy FM in Beijing after failed coup attempt
- Chinese domestic air travel mobility indicators still point to stalling China recovery
- Weekend news: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chair Jordan flagged further interest rate hikes
- Economic calendar in Asia, Monday, 26 June 2023 – BOJ Summary for the June 15 & 16 meeting
- Trade ideas thread – Monday, 26 June 2023
- Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices for early 26 June 2023
- Prigozhin to leave for Belarus, case against him to be dropped
- Prigozhin says convoys returning to bases
- Holiday travel in China slumps, Korean airlines cut China flights on lower demand, tension
- A full-scale mutiny is under way in Russia
- Russia accuses Wagner boss of armed mutiny. Tanks in the streets in Moscow
Over
the weekend there was a filed coup attempt in Russia, see the bullets
above for the developments. Oil opened fairly steadily in US futures
Sunday evening trade but soon gained ground. Its since retraced that
gain is little changed on the session now.
From
the session here today we had the Bank of Japan ‘Summary of
Opinions’ from its June meeting. The “Summary of Opinions”
provides a concise summary of the views expressed by Policy Board
members during the meeting. The full Minutes of this meeting will
follow on 2 August 2023.
Notable
from this meeting were comments from members to the effect that:
- There
is strong chance consumer inflation will moderate, but won’t slow
back below 2%, toward middle of current fiscal year - Although
the rise in raw material prices has paused, firms’ pass-through of
cost increases to their selling prices has intensified further, the
employment and income situation has improved, and inbound tourism
demand has recovered. Given this, inflationary pressure is likely to
remain strong for the time being - Corporate
behaviour has seen clear changes, and price and wage hikes have been
incorporated into corporate strategy - due
attention is required because the possibility that the persistence of
price rises in Japan has been underestimated cannot be ruled out, as
were the cases with Europe and the United States - One
member called for early revision of YCC policy. The
member said that while the BOJ should maintain its current monetary
stimulus for now, since the cost of waiting to achieve sustainable 2%
inflation is low for the BOJ’s overall easing program. However,
from the perspective of improving market functioning, communication
with investors and preventing sharp moves in interest rates when the
BOJ exits its current monetary easing, using yield curve control is
costly, the member added.
Taken
together these points seem strongly indicative of a change to policy
coming at the July (27 an 28) meeting, at the very least a ‘tweak’
to YCC.
USD/JPY
opened a touch weaker on the session and has traded a circa 143.24 –
143.70 range.