- Fed’s Harker speaks Monday on his economic outlook
- China’s foreign minister Wang Yi meets Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov
- A number of risk advisory investigation firms are closing Hong Kong offices
- 5 hour ceasefire to allow foreigners to exit, & humanitarian aid to enter, Gaza via Egypt
- ECB’s de Cos speaks Monday
- Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks today – finely balanced again?
- Former Bank of China chairman arrested
- Crypto, stop “bitches & moans about regulation”, needed because of “criminals & scumbags”
- TD on oil – don’t see a material surge above $100/bbl – but watch for MidEast escalation
- People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1798 (vs. estimate at 7.3121)
- OIL – TD says Iran getting involved in Gaza is a ‘tail event’ risk, a worse case scenario
- ICYMI, former Fed Bullard: investors too complacent on inflation, FOMC might go to 6.5%
- Chinese financial press says that researchers see more RRR, rate cuts, this year
- RBA says tokenised money could help save billions in costs in domestic financial markets
- UK data – Rightmove House Price Index for October: -0.8% y/y (prior -0.4%)
- Weekend – PBOC Governor Pan promised to provide more substantial support to real economy
- Centrists parties look to have won government in Poland
- BoE Gov Bailey: the usual transmission mechanism not yet being demonstrated on wages
- JP Morgan CEO Dimon: “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades”
- BoA says the Federal Reserve and US government should “stop playing Superman”
- US’ Kirby won’t rule out sending troops to rescue Gaza hostages
- New Zealand Services PMI for September 50.7 (prior 47.1)
- The US and Israel are discussing a potential visit of US President Biden to Israel
- Palestinian Authority President said actions of Hamas don’t represent Palestinian people
- Iran’s UN mission reportedly says its armed forces will not engage Israel if not attacked
- ECB Lagarde – underlying inflation is still strong, wage growth is “historically high”
- NZD/USD pop on New Zealand election results sets up a short fade – levels to target
- Trade ideas thread – Monday, 16 October 2023
- Iran says it will “not remain an observer” on Gaza
- Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 16 October 2023 – small NZD pop
- New Zealand shifts right as Christopher Luxon named prime minister
- Weekly Market Outlook (16-20 October)
- IMF: Yen’s recent declines are driven by fundamentals, criteria not met for intervention
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: US retail sales, China activity data, PBoC, NZ, UK and Canada CPI
NZD/USD
opened a little higher on Monday after the election over the weekend
resulted in a change of government, as expected. Christopher Luxon
led the centre-right party to the win, with 39% of the vote. The
opposition Labour party clinched 27%. Luxon will govern with the
support of minor parties.
NZD/USD
has traded up from its late Friday level around 0.5885 to a high just
over 0.5925. AUD/USD was dragged up a little also.
USD/JPY
is not a lot changed on the session, circa 149.49 as I post.
EUR/USD
and GBP/USD are up a little on the session with no news of impact for
these.
From
China we once again got a heavy USD/CNY reference rate setting, and
once again on the 7.17 big figure and around 1300 points lower than
the modelled estimate.
Also
from China today was this month’s Medium-term Lending Facility
(MLF), with the largest net injection since December 2020 at an
unchanged rate of 2.5% (2.5% was expected).
Markets
remain on tenterhooks watching Middle East developments. There was
mixed messaging from Iran over Israel’s imminent ground incursion
into Gaza. As
I post the news is crossing of a 5 hour humanitarian ceasefire to
allow foreigners to exit and humanitarian aid to enter Gaza via the
Egypt border. Its to begin at 9am local through to 2pm.
Oil didn’t do a lot here: