- Deel revises its Terms of Service, has cut off some trading sites from payments
- North Korea appears to have fired a ballistic missile
- Deutsche Bank says monetary policy impact transmitting more rapidly in Europe than the US
- Here’s a “cheat sheet” for the European Central Bank meeting – scenarios & how to position
- Market is pricing the BOJ to end negative rates in January 2024, a massive shift
- USD/JPY higher on the session – BOJ buying JGBs again, yield on 10yr down to 0.7%
- Beijing scrapped a rule limiting prices of pre-owned homes in popular district
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1894 (vs. estimate at 7.2783)
- Goldman Sachs on 3 developments that will slow US growth to a crawl in Q4 2023, just 1.3%
- Coindesk says the CEO of Binance US has left the firm, one third of workforce has been cut
- Japan August PPI +0.3% m/m (expected +0.1%)
- More on the apparent leak of an ECB rate hike coming on Thursday
- Reuters September Tankan: Manufacturers Index +4 (prior +12) Non-Manu +23 (prior +32)
- JP Morgan analyst says Fed willing to sacrifice economy to kill inflation, “like the ECB”
- New Zealand data – Food Price Index (August) +0.5% m/m (prior -0.5%)
- Heads up for Biden to speak Thursday – on the economy
- Newswire says US government reportedly looking to offload almost USD13bn of mortgage bonds
- Carlyle CEO says the FOMC will hike rates one more time this year
- Goldman Sachs on why the S&P 500 could go higher than their 4500 target
- US August CPI due today – preview – final piece of the puzzle for the FOMC meeting
- Fed rate cut in early 2024? “I don’t think that’s going to happen” says Mohamed El-Erian
- SocGen raised its S&P 500 price target for the end of 2023 to 4,750 (from 4,300)
- Bond King Gundlach says the Fed is done raising rates
- Private oil survey data shows a build for the headline crude number vs. draw expected
- EUR/USD higher on ECB rate hike leak
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Oil hits a fresh 10-month high
- Unnamed source says ECB to hike its inflation forecasts, firms case for rate rise
- US equity close: Apple drags after the latest iPhone announcement
- What are the crowded trades
- Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 13 September 2023
- US August CPI preview: Are we worried about now or later?
It
was another subdued day in Asia with the excuse today being ‘awaiting
the US CPI’. Fair enough, it’s a critical report. Oh, tomorrow
we’ll be getting ‘waiting on the ECB’.
Nevertheless
we did have some minor movement.
EUR/USD rose on Reuters reporting an apparent leak of a likely European Central Bank rate hike on Thursday (see bullets above). Reuters cited an unnamed source who said the reason for the hike was higher inflation forecasts.
USD/JPY chipped away at its Monday
morning gap, rising to a high just over 147.40, so there’s still a
way to go higher before that gap is filled. Market pricing has
shifted significantly to an end to negative rates at the Bank of
Japan in January 2024 from September 2024 previously. More in the
bullets above on this.
The
USD gained more widely, AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP all traded down a
little during the session. The yuan broke the mould, the Chinese
currency is stronger on the session. Piecemeal policy changes
continue in China and the news on Country Garden (the troubled
property developer) is also on the up, it received approval to
extend another yuan bond.
News
flow otherwise was light.
We
got data from Japan, m/m PPI came in higher than expected while the
y/y was inline and lower for an eighth consecutive month.
And,
one more thing, for those reading this using trader funding / prop
firm services, check out the post on Deel suspending payment services
to many such firms. The good news is that reputable and well-managed
firms are quickly putting alternative payment processes into place.
More in that post above.
EUR/USD rose on the ‘leak’: