- French central bank head, and ECB Governing Council member, Villeroy speaks today
- Deutsche Bank downgrade Europe equities to neutral from overweight, stays fullyear bullish
- Seuz shipping – container carriers have entered agreements with Houthis to avoid attack
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is speaking on Tuesday
- Federal Reserve governor Bowman said her hawkish stance has “evolved” (less hawkish)
- SEC Gensler’s Last Stand on crypto Investments amidst Bitcoin ETF approval expectations
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1010 (vs. estimate at 7.1502)
- AUD/USD higher after November retail sales
- Australian November Retail Sales +2.0% m/m (expected +1.2%)
- UK consumer spending rises in December *slower than in Nov.), boosted by lower inflation
- UK like-for-like sales +1.9% in November (prior +2.6%)
- Bank of Japan likely offloaded shares as stock prices stabilize
- Tokyo headline CPI for December 2.4% y/y (prior 2.6%)
- Why the People’s Bank of China can’t ease the economic headwinds away
- Weekly survey of Australian Consumer Confidence 84.8, its highest in nearly a year
- HSBC analysts predict modest strength in the yen; recovery expected this year
- USA news – Massive explosion in Fort Worth, Texas
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Stocks nearly wipe out last week’s losses
- Fed’s Bowman says she remains willing to hike if inflation progress stalls
- More woes for Boeing – loose bolts found on MAX plane during inspection
- Major US stock indices close with solid gains after snapping 9-week win streak last week.
- Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 9 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
The
USD weakened nearly across the majors board during the session here,
with JPY the notable gainer.
From
Japan today we had the latest inflation data, the Tokyo area CPI for
December. All three measures fell a little from November. The caveat
was that the core-core measure (this is CPI excluding food and energy
and is the closest to the US measure of core CPI) came in at a still
very high 3.5%. While underlying inflation remains so strong it’ll
keep the prospects of a Bank of Japan pivot to tighter on the boil.
Having said this, another data point from Japan today does make you
wonder how the BOJ will escape easy policy. Household spending (the
data is in the CPI post, scroll down) fell heavily both m/m and y/y
in November, and much further than was expected.
USD/JPY
fell away, dropping from highs around 144.25 early in the morning to
lows just under 143.50 before putting in a tepid bounce. Its
currently circa 143.65. If you believe the yen is the arbiter of how
the market assessed the data then more weight was placed on the high
underlying CPI result.
From
Australia we had retail sales data for November. These jumped
by more than expected. There are recurring issues with seasonal
adjustment at this time of year as the warm embrace of Black Friday
sales by Australian consumers is still a relatively new phenomenon
and the Australian Bureau of Statistics is still adjusting to retail
sales shifting from Christmas shopping to a month or so earlier to
grab Black Friday discounts. Nevertheless, sales for the month hit
AUD 36.5bn. This is a record high. High inflation, and strong
population growth, have played a part in this, of course.
AUD/USD
gained ground, as did other FX against the USD. As I post, though, AUD (and others) have retraced back to pretty much where they began the session.
Asian
equities bounced after their slump on Monday. Eyes are mainly on
China. Stocks there rallied. As I post Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index
is up 0.3%, as is the Shanghai Composite. China’s benchmark blue
chip index CSI300 is also up around 0.3%.
In
news today there were a couple of concerning incidents in the US late
on Monday afternoon. There was large explosion in a hotel in Fort
Worth, Texas. It appears to have been a gas explosion rather than
some sort of deliberate attack. Around the same time, at the White
House in Washington, D.C. a
vehicle was driven into a Primary
Gate on the
grounds.
The
Secret
Service, Capitol Police, and other law
enforcement
responded
by arresting the driver, and finding what has been described as a
“suspicious
package”
inside the vehicle.
Yen was the star of the show today