Markets:
- EUR/USD up 28 pips to 1.0648
- WTI crude oil up 44-cents to $82.90
- US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps to 4.64%
- STOXX 600 flat
- Gold up $1 to $1987
- NZD leads, USD lags
Germany posted a robust trade surplus of €16.5 billion for September, although its exports showed a modest decline of 2.4% month-over-month. Meanwhile, France’s industrial production fell by 0.5%, and the Eurozone saw a slight uptick in unemployment, rising to 6.5% compared to the anticipated 6.4%. The data didn’t affect the euro but it crept up in the past two hours as the US dollar began to slide as a fresh bid for bonds appeared.
Cable managed to climb through yesterday’s best level to a one-week high of 1.2230, running some minor stops above yesterday’s high before paring back slightly. News out of the UK was light and the move was driven by the dollar side of the equation. On the Bank of England pricing now indicates only a 16% chance of BOE hike in December, rising to 25% later before switching to cuts in the back half of 2024.
USD/JPY slacked off to 150.20 after rising as high as 150.52 in Asia. Sellers appear to be lining up around that 150.50 level as it held several times over the past day.
The winner so far is NZD, which is up 24 pips or 0.37%. That’s despite a mediocre risk background in light of Apple’s 2.5% decline post-earnings.