- Prior 45.7
That’s a decent revision higher but still reaffirms a contraction in France’s manufacturing sector towards the end of Q2. The recent protests are also going to factor into the hard data surely, especially in the services sector so there is that to consider. HCOB notes that:
“For the fifth month in a row, things are not looking good for the manufacturing sector in France. According to the HCOB
PMIs, production continues to decline, new orders at home and abroad are falling and business expectations have also
deteriorated significantly. According to INSEE, the manufacturing sector grew in the first quarter, but this will most probably
not continue in the second quarter of 2023.
“After today’s PMI figures, our nowcast model now signals a 2.4% quarterly contraction in manufacturing for the second
quarter, slightly more negative than our previous estimate. Capital goods are the main contributor to the contraction,
according to our model.
“For the first time this year, employment in manufacturing declined, with the corresponding HCOB PMI at its lowest level
since November 2020. The companies surveyed said that expiring fixed-term contracts were not renewed and jobs were
eliminated without replacement. Employment increased in the consumer goods segment but decreased again in the capital
goods segment.
“Fundamentally, encouraging signals are being sent from the price front. After the HCOB PMI for input prices in May
signalled a decline in prices for the first time since July 2020, the corresponding HCOB PMI for selling prices now follows in
June. However, a distinction must be made here according to goods categories. Thus, prices are declining exclusively for
intermediate goods. For consumer and capital goods, selling prices continued to rise in June, although the pace at which
prices have risen has slowed down.”
/EUR