And that perhaps says something about the directional bias in the pair at the moment. I mean, if something can’t go up on good news.. well there’s only one other direction it is heading towards then. We saw the rates market already move in to price in another 25 bps rate hike for the BOE after the UK CPI data this week and GBP/USD still fell by 0.4% yesterday.
Sure, the prospect of stagflation risks and negative sentiment in equities are also factors weighing on the pair yesterday but the pound barely showed any fight to be honest. And that sort of price action might be a bit worrying, especially when you consider the backdrop where markets are no longer seeing any more Fed rate hikes.
GBP/USD daily chart
For now, GBP/USD is still being defended somewhat by the 10 April low of 1.2344 – at least on the daily chart. Just below that, there is an additional layer of support from the 100-day moving average (red line) at 1.2284. But break below that, and it could result in a quick trip back towards 1.2000 for cable next.
And with the good news for the pound – which was better than what I would have expected to be honest – now already baked into the price, it once again looks like the path of least resistance is for a move lower in GBP/USD; all else being equal.