Sterling consolidated its gains above the 1.2500 mark against the US Dollar and stayed above the 200-day EMA in Thursday’s trading, amid quiet liquidity levels. GBPUSD hit its highest level since early September, amid shifting expectations regarding the BOE’s rate cut timeline.
The latest survey revealed that UK private sector activity stabilised in November, surpassing market predictions and ending a three-month period of contraction. Manufacturing PMI rose from 44.8 to a six-month high of 46.7, surpassing expectations of 45.0. The services PMI increased from 49.5 to a four-month high of 50.5, signalling a return to expansion and surpassing expectations of 49.5. The composite PMI, which combines both sectors, also hit a four-month high of 50.1, up from 48.7.
Investors now see the likelihood of a BOE rate cut of 25 basis points, exceeding 50% at the August meeting and fully factoring in September. On Wednesday, Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt announced measures to support the country’s sluggish economic growth, with the latest OBR forecasts showing weaker growth than originally forecast for 2024 and 2025, alongside a significant upward revision to inflation next year.
Meanwhile, the GBPJPY cross pair still continued its northward journey and gained +0.34% on Thursday’s trading [23/11] and traded above 187.00. The intraday bias is still slightly to the upside at the moment. The rebound from 184.45 could continue to retest the 188.27 high first. A decisive breakout there would resume the larger uptrend, but on the downside, a move below 184.44 support could bring a drop to 183.80 which would turn into support.
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Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia
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