USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected
  with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed once again that they are
  proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy tightening have yet to be
  felt.
• The recent US CPI missed expectations
  across the board bringing the expectations for rate cuts forward.
• The labour market is starting to show weakness as Continuing
  Claims are now rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report missed across
  the board, but yesterday the US Jobless Claims beat forecasts giving the USD a
  short-term boost.
• The latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI missed
  expectations by a big margin, followed by a disappointing ISM Services PMI,
  although the latter remained in expansion.
• The recent US Retail Sales beat
  expectations, while the US PPI missed forecasts by a big margin.
• The recent Fedspeak has been leaning on
  the hawkish side, but last week’s inflation report pretty much confirmed that
  the Fed might be done for the cycle.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

GBP

• The BoE kept interest rates
  unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The central bank is leaning towards
  keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, although it keeps a door open for
  further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent.
• BoE Governor Bailey repeated that
  they will keep rates high for long enough to get inflation back to target.
• The latest employment report beat
  expectations with wage growth remaining at elevated levels.
• The UK CPI missed expectations
  across the board, which is a welcome development for the BoE.
• The UK PMIs showed further
  contraction in the services sector, which accounts for 80% of UK’s economic
  activity.
• The UK Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin as consumer spending remains
  weak.
• The market doesn’t expect the BoE to
  hike anymore.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD is
approaching a key resistance level around the 1.26 handle where we can also
find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. This is where we can
expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to
position for a drop into the upward trendline.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
action is forming what looks like a rising wedge right into the key resistance.
Moreover, we can also notice that the price is diverging with the MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals.
In this case, it might be an extra confirmation that we could see a bigger
correction to the downside into the major trendline around the 1.2350 level.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that
there’s not much to lean onto except the trendlines and the key resistance. The
sellers will look to short from the resistance and from the break below the bottom
trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, should keep on leaning on the bottom
trendline to target a break above the resistance, but in case the price breaks
lower, the buyers will be waiting around the major trendline at 1.2350.

Upcoming Events

Today the US is on holiday
for Thanksgiving Day and therefore the liquidity in the market will be thinner.
Nonetheless we will get the latest UK PMIs which are going to be market moving,
while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US PMIs.

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