Fundamental
Overview
Gold got stuck in a tight
consolidation near the all-time highs as the market might be waiting for new catalysts
for the next direction. For now, the market continues to move upwards by
inertia amid a lack of bearish news for the precious metal.
Real yields remain in a
bearish trend which is supportive for the gold market. We will likely need a
strong growth scare to see some downside in gold or a hawkish Fed to trigger a
bigger correction. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
On Friday, we got the
long-term inflation expectations in the Consumer Sentiment survey jumping to a
new 30-year high. That might put the Fed in an uncomfortable position. The next
NFP and CPI reports will be key for the markets.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold is currently consolidating near the all-time highs. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the 2790 level, while the sellers will look for a break below the level
to start targeting the 2600 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have the major upward trendline defining the bullish
momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to
lean on it to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into new lows.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a tight range around the all-time highs. The buyers will
likely keep on pushing into new highs as long as the price stays above the 2920
support, while the sellers will look for a break below the support to target a
deeper pullback into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we have the US Consumer Confidence
report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on
Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE data.