Fundamental
Overview
Gold came under pressure
last Friday following the weak US
Retail Sales data. That reaction seemed wrong-footed given that it should
actually support gold due to falling real yields. Moreover, Retail Sales are volatile
so one negative month doesn’t change anything.
Sure enough, the market
eventually started to erase the losses with the price now getting near the
levels seen before the Retail Sales report. Today, we have the US-Russia talks
in Saudi Arabia and positive headlines might weigh a bit on gold.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to consolidate near the recent highs. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the 2790 level, while the sellers will look for a break below the level
to start targeting the 2600 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we the major upward trendline defining the bullish
momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to
lean on it to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into new lows.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to position for a rally
into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the
bearish bets into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US-Russia talks in Saudi
Arabia. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on
Friday we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.