The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps as expected
and left everything unchanged. Fed Chair Powell didn’t hint to anything and
reaffirmed their data dependency keeping all the options on the table. The US
data since the FOMC meeting has been mixed but the labour market indicators
continue to point to a very strong jobs market. In fact, the recent beat in the
US ADP report on
Wednesday was one of the catalysts that pushed long term Treasury yields and
the US Dollar higher, ultimately weighing on Gold as it’s sensitive to real
yields and dollar moves.
Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that Gold rejected
the 1984 resistance and
started to decline as the US data remained strong. We are now at a strong
support level at 1934 where we are likely to see the buyers stepping in with a
defined risk below the level to target the 1984 resistance and eventually a
breakout. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower
to increase the selling pressure and pile in to target the 1805 swing low
level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
key levels of support and resistance. If the price breaks below the current
1934 support, we are likely to see a move towards the 1893 low next. On the
other hand, if the price bounces, we should see a rally into the 1984
resistance. So, what happens here will decide where Gold is going to go next.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1
hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that Gold
has been consolidating around the support level as the market is probably
awaiting the NFP report today. If the price breaks above the trendline and
the previous swing low at 1942, the bounce should be confirmed and the buyers
would be in control to take the price towards the 1984 resistance. The sellers,
on the other hand, need just to wait for the price to break the consolidation
lower to confirm the break and target the 1893 low.
Upcoming Events
Today, all eyes will be on the latest US NFP
report. The Fed will see another NFP report before the next meeting so this one
won’t decide what they are going to do but it can change market expectations, nonetheless.
Strong data should weigh on Gold as the market would expects the Fed to remain
hawkish, while weak readings are likely to support it as the market would
expect the Fed to be done already with the last week’s rate hike.