Fundamental
Overview
Yesterday, gold dropped
during the American session without any clear catalyst. Real yields rose following
the US NFP report and that weighed on the market. After some resistance, the
price eventually caught up with higher real yields dropping to a new two-weeks
low.
Tomorrow, we have the US
CPI report and that could be a catalyst for either a rally or a selloff. If we
get an upside surprise in the data, then we will likely see new lows in gold.
Conversely, a very soft report might trigger another rally and take us to a new
all-time high.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold is getting close to the trendline. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price yesterday broke below the recent low, retested it, and
continued lower. The buyers will want to see the price getting back above the
2625 level to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will
likely keep on targeting the trendline for now.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have the lower bound of the average daily range for today standing right around the
trendline. That should cap the losses in case the price falls to the trendline
today. Then, the US CPI report tomorrow will likely decide if we rally or sell
off some more.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, we get the US CPI report and
the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude with the US PPI and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.