Fundamental
Overview
Last week, despite the
higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the market’s
pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This opened the door for some
pullback with gold rising above key technical levels.
In the bigger picture, gold
remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the
Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will be triggered by a
repricing in rate cuts expectations.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold managed to bounce back and rise above the major trendline around the 2600 level. The buyers
will likely pile in around these levels with a defined risk below the trendline
to position for a rally into a new all-time high.
The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking back below the trendline to position
for a drop into the next major trendline around the 2400.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The
sellers will likely lean on it to position for the break below the major
trendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the
bullish bets into a new all-time high.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If
we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to keep
pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to
increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This
week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PMIs.