Fundamental
Overview
This week has been pretty
boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a
tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as
we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP
report.
As a reminder, the Fed is
now very focused on the labour market as Fed Chair Powell said that they will
not welcome any more weakness and will do everything they can to keep it
strong. Therefore, the data will decide whether the central bank will go with a
standard 25 bps cut in September or take a more aggressive approach with a 50
bps cut.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold is struggling to break above the 2531 resistance
as the lack of catalysts this week kept the market at bay. Nonetheless, the
buyers remain in control for now and they will keep targeting new all-time highs.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below
the 2480 level to turn the bias more bearish and position for a drop into the
2360 level.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below the trendline that was defining the bullish
momentum on this timeframe. This is just another signal of a loss in momentum
and general consolidation.
We are now stuck in a range
between the 2480 support and the 2531 resistance. The buyers will want to go
long around the support or wait for a break above the resistance. The sellers,
on the other hand, will look to go short around the resistance or wait for a
break below the support.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action. The red lines define the average daily range for today so we shouldn’t expect
any breakout today unless the US jobless claims surprise with a big spike above
the 260K level.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the US PCE report.