Goldman Sachs preface their expectation with “We see a below-consensus” …
GS have been consistently below consensus with this expectation.
- We see a below-consensus 20% probability of entering a recession over
the next year - as we think taming inflation will not require a
recession - we expect the unemployment rate to end the year at
3.5% and remain there for the next few years
Say what you like about JP, but falling inflation and low unemployment argues that he is doing just fine.