US Core CPI YoY
It’s all about CPI this week as we count down to the Wednesday report.
Goldman Sachs is out with its estimate and it’s for +0.27% on core and +3.7% y/y. For headline, they see +0.29% and +3.37% y/y.
That everyone is suddenly talking about the second decimal place again, highlights just how high the stakes are.
“Our forecast reflects a 0.3% pullback in apparel prices, a 3% drop in airfares, and small declines in new (-0.3%) and used (-0.5%) car prices. We expect rent to rise 0.37% and OER to rise 0.45% in light of continued single-family outperformance. We expect larger increase in car insurance (+1.4%) and hotel lodging (+1.0%),” Goldman Sachs writes today.
The rent and OER numbers have been particularly puzzling for economists and the Fed, something that Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee spoke about last week.
Goldman Sachs believes that employment is running hotter than population growth and boosted its Q1 GDP forecast slightly.
Based on the rules of thumb in our new guide How to Read the Employment Report, we estimate that the underlying trend pace of job growth is 212k-well above our 125k/month breakeven estimate-and the underlying trend pace of average hourly earnings growth is +3.9% annualized.
We raised our Q1 GDP tracking to 2.5%.
The US dollar is under some pressure at the moment as Treasury yields give back some gains.