Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius with hte firm’s response to Friday’s jobs data.
- “I thought it was broadly weaker than what we expected,”
- ”But, “I don’t think it was weak in a very concerning way.”
- “It was a softer report that I think underscores the message that the market took out of the FOMC meeting this week — namely, that the Fed is very likely done hiking”
Hatzius added that Goldman Sachs isn’t expecting the Fed to cut rates until Q4 of 2024 but if the economy weakens more sharply before then then a cut could come sooner.
He was speaking in an interview with CNBC on Friday after the NFP report. Jobs data info in here ICYMI:
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As an aside, the miss on the ISM Services PMI caught my eye:
I’m not sweating too much on it, its still in expansion and the nature of the indicator means it will decline a little from strong readings more often than not, but … combined with the miss on jobs, and still high inflation, I do wonder if the Fed is going to get caught having to hold rates high, if not raise them again (due to that strong inflation), and we get some sort of stagflationary outcome. Too early to tell, but spidey senses are tingling.
ISM services — how much further will it turn down?