Fed’s Harker
Harker recently shifted to a calling for the Fed to hold so this isn’t new, though he wasn’t this explicit previously.
- Supports higher-for-longer interest rate stance
- Can’t say for low long rates will need to remain high
- Sees steadily disinflation, falling below 3% this year
- Growth to moderate next year but he doesn’t see a recession
- Does not expect to see mass layoffs
- Auto strikes and renewed student loan payments will weigh on economy
- Expects unemployment rate to rise to about 4%
He paints a picture of a soft landing and rates staying unchanged for most of next year. That’s in line with the market, which sees highs in June or July, then again in Sept and in Dec for a tally of 75 bps of easing.