- Reports today from retailers show that consumers aren’t spending like they used to
- My preference, barring any change in data outside our forecast, is for skipping a rate hike
- It’s prudent policy to skip June
- Let’s skip and see how it goes
- If inflation started coming down unexpected fast, then we could cut rates; that is not my forecast
- I don’t think we’ll have a recession this year
Now this is getting more explicit and more dovish. The implied odds of a June cut are down to 27% but we still have the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow.