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Hawkish dot plot leads to a US dollar rally

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The US dollar is 50-70 pips higher across the board following the FOMC decision.

The announcement of no change in rates was largely priced in but what caught the market off guard was a rise in the Fed’s dot plot to indicate that the median of policymakers see rates at 5.6% at year end. That would imply two more rate hikes before year end.

At the same time, the 2024 dot moved up to 4.6% from 4.3%, suggesting a higher-for-longer path.

The reaction from the market was immediate with USD/JPY climbing to 140.18 from 139.43.

USDJPY 10 mins

Fed chairman Powell will hold a press conference at the bottom of the hour. It will be pressed on how certain he is that two more rate hikes are coming.

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