Eurozone flash CPI will grab some attention this morning with the next ECB meeting coming up next week Thursday.
Below is what markets are expecting from today’s print:
- HICP Flash YY: expected 2.6% (prior 2.6%)
- HICP Core YY: expected 3.0% (prior 3.1%)
Unfortunately the regional prints seen below was a mixed bag with French and German numbers falling but Italian and Spanish numbers moving higher.
That doesn’t provide us with any real clue on the likelihood of an upside or downside surprise with today’s print.
EZ flash cpi regional prints came in mixed
Looking at rate forecasts below, we would arguably need a very big miss or beat in the data to drastically change market expectations.
ECB rate probabilities
A hold for next week is priced at 80% and a June cut priced at 99%. With those odds it would take a massive deviation in today’s data to change that.
Having said that, if core YY can break below 3.0% it would give doves among the ECB more firepower in next week’s deliberations.