We have Swiss CPI for march due at 06:30 GMT
Swiss CPI expectations
Markets are looking for a MM print of 0.3% (prior 0.6%) and for a YY print of 1.3% (prior 1.2%).
Despite the surprise cut by the SNB at their previous meeting, I think there is two-way risks for the CHF on this print.
The SNB were very clear on not providing any forward guidance on rates at the meeting. They also didn’t acknowledge a preference for a weaker CHF by saying they are open to both FX reserve buying and selling.
Looking at CHF CFTC data (net positioning as a percentage of open interest) we can see that markets have a decent short position running already.
CHF positioning
Which means an upside surprise could be enough to see some of that unwind.
Numbers I’m watching for today for a possible trigger is a miss of 0.9% or lower to give enough conviction to see more CHF downside.
Alternatively, a print of 1.5% or higher could be enough to trigger some short position unwinding.