There is roughly 26 bps priced in for a move in March next year and that is a much changed timeline from before the FOMC meeting yesterday. Traders had previously priced in that amount for May next year. So, the Fed has essentially just vindicated the aggressive rate cut pricing in recent weeks and they will have just one meeting in January to provide any clarity before we fall into the market’s timeline.
Prior to the FOMC meeting yesterday, traders were seeing roughly 112 bps worth of rate cuts for the entirety of next year but that has since escalated drastically to 148 bps worth of rate cuts now.
If you’re wondering why the dollar has struggled and everything else is rallying, it is essentially this. The question now is, will the Fed follow through after having told traders that they are right to consider rate cuts going into next year? Unless challenged by policymakers, markets will keep pushing against the Fed and right now traders are knocking on the Fed’s door and asking about a move in March.