Bank of America is wary of higher commodity prices:
“While the shift in commodity prices might not question the start of the cutting cycle in June, it could prevent the ECB from hastening the cycle in December.”
And will become even more wary if the cycle higher continues. Analysts at the bank say that if oil prices rise above $100 central banks will not be able to cut rates, due to the flow-through effect to higher inflation.
- BoA add on divergent policy at the ECB and Fed:
- the ECB is expected to ease more than the Fed does
- if the FOMC holds rates EUR/USD could drop to parity
- the USD will receive support from a stagflation / ris off scenario
For the latest chart on oil, I posted both Brent and WTI here over the weekend:
Oil technical analysis and why you care about this junction