For some context, this will be the first time that Xi is skipping a G20 summit since taking charge of China in 2012. And what makes this rather eyebrow raising is that it just comes right after his trip to South Africa for the BRICS summit. Here’s some speculative reasons why:
- Perhaps Xi wants to avoid further scrutiny on China’s economy, where he will likely be posed tough questions on how Beijing is dealing with things back home and how he plans to turn things around; or
- Xi is offering a show of support to Putin, who will also not be attending the summit, and he would also like to dodge any allegations and pressures during the event related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict; or
- Recent China-India tensions are weighing on his mind and with the summit to be held in India, this is a vote of no support towards Modi and in some ways is an attempt to undercut him
Or perhaps it is all of the above put together in bits and pieces. Adding to that will be the US’ own agenda to try and poke and prod at Xi on the Taiwan situation as well. So, take your pick.