JP Morgan Asset Management says an incoming US recession is a virtual certainty. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by the third quarter as growth loses momentum.
Bloomberg (gated) reported on the note from JPM:
- “The market is right to be penciling in cuts”
- “Inflation is too high and it will take a recession to bring it back down”
- US banking stresses “have only made a recession more likely.”
- Fed will execute a policy pivot as soon as September to counter slowing growth
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