It was a relief day for broader markets yesterday and that is still holding somewhat so far today. The dollar retreated while stocks gained some reprieve, even as we continue to see Treasury yields hold higher. Meanwhile, oil prices also turned and sharply reversing the gains from the day before.
But is it all to do with month-end and quarter-end flows? That might have been in part related to what we saw earlier this week too, with both Barclays and Citi noting that they see dollar buying ahead of the end of the month/quarter. Although that was not the case yesterday, as the flows reversed instead.
It’s tricky to read too much into these things but the bottom line is that if yields still can go higher from here, the path of least resistance is for the dollar to remain in a firmer spot and equities will continue to be rocked as well.
In terms of economic data releases today, there will be some interesting ones coming up in Europe.
We have UK Q2 GDP, which is to reaffirm a marginal growth in the economy in the last quarter. But that is a long and forgotten story now as Q3 paints a rather bleak picture. Besides that, we’ll also have UK credit data and the latest German labour market report to scrutinise. And the highlight being the Eurozone CPI data for September, which should reaffirm a slowdown in price pressures on the month – particularly thanks to Germany here.
0600 GMT – Germany August retail sales
0600 GMT – Germany August import price index
0600 GMT – UK Q2 final GDP figures
0645 GMT – France September preliminary CPI figures
0700 GMT – Switzerland September KOF leading indicator index
0755 GMT – Germany September unemployment change, rate
0830 GMT – UK August mortgage approvals, credit data
0900 GMT – Eurozone September preliminary CPI figures
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.