Below
is a very handy ECB cheat sheet from ING:
ING ECB cheatsheet (April 2024)
The bank
thinks that EURUSD is expensive at current levels, but unless we get strong
guidance for deeper cuts after June the impact might be more short-lived. I share their sentiment in this regard.
They think
that the pair would need an equity-sell off as well as an official start to the
ECB’s rate cutting cycle for a move lower.
There is a
greater chance of a move towards 1.07 compared to a break higher to 1.09.
Personally, I think a lot of bad news is priced
for the EUR, but time will tell.