US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The market certainly isn’t in a good mood on the first Wednesday of the year, with S&P 500 futures down 19 points, or 0.4% and the Nasdaq lagging again. In FX, the US dollar is reasserting itself as Treasury yields tick 2-3 bps higher across the curve.
On the economic calendar today, we get a pair of releases but not until 10 am ET with:
- ISM manufacturing
- JOLTS
Yesterday’s manufacturing PMI from S&P Global slipped to 47.9 from 48.2 so there are downside risks to the consensus on ISM, which is for an increase to 47.1 from 46.7. Beyond that, the market will be watching the prices paid and new orders components.
For JOLTS, job openings ticking down would certainly help the soft landing narrative but even if they rise to 8.85m from 8.73m, as expected, then I don’t think it will rock the boat too much.
This time of year is still about flows with fundamentals in the background. I believe the main driver is one I’ve been talking about for awhile — people locking in megacap tech equity gains after the new year to push the tax burden out to April 2025.