The bond market is acting as the key driver for broader sentiment at the moment, as falling yields is impacting all other asset classes since after the Fed meeting on Wednesday. 10-year Treasury yields have fallen from 5% earlier this week to now 4.65% in a massive reversal rally in bonds, prompting the dollar to slide and equities to surge higher. With that still in consideration, does today’s non-farm payrolls even matter?
The answer is yes, in the sense that how traders view the jobs report will be a supplementary factor in digesting what is happening in the bond market right now.
If we see labour market conditions show some cracks in the resiliency, I reckon the squeeze in the bond market will run further. There’s a sense that after so much selling, there is a sense of angst that has been built up. And coupled with the idea that perhaps traders don’t want to miss such an opportunity, the rally in bonds might be one that will go into overdrive given the right settings.
And today’s US non-farm payrolls could be just that. If the jobs numbers are soft and the unemployment rate ticks higher, that could be enough to see the house of cards tumble in Treasury yields and the dollar currency. At the same time, both of that will also act as a catalyst for equities and risk trades.
In that sense, yes the jobs report today will matter. However, it is no longer about assessing the Fed outlook. Instead, it is about assessing the drive in the bond market as traders turn against the view of 5% rates this week. The pitchforks are out and they are instigated by ringleaders like Bill Ackman, Bill Gross, and Jeff Gundlach.