JP Morgan provide this graph if their analysis of central bank speakers, clearly showing how much hawkish the European Central Bank currently is compared with a relaxing Federal Reserve and Bank of England.
Which naturally leads to the view that there are more hikes to come from the ECB than the other two. However, says JPM:
- A key risk for our outlook is that central banks are compelled to restart their rate hiking cycles after seeing inflation prove sticker than expected.
And what this means for the FOMC is that:
- the bias is for more tightening—whether it be in June or sometime in the second half of this year