In the kickstart video for September 4, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and a special technical look at the USDCAD ahead of their interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET.
For the EURUSD, it rose to test a trend line on the hourly chart and the falling 100 hour MA near 1.10612. The fall took the price down to test the 38.2% of the August trading range. That level comes in at 1.10389. Those two levels are the barometers for the top and bottom side.
For the GBPUSD, it remains below the 100 hour MA at 1.3137 and a swing area between 1.3128 to 1.31447. So although the price is higher on the day, there is topside resistance that needs to be broken to give buyers more control.
For the USDJPY, its price is back below the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA at 145.7 and 145.13 respectively. ON the downside, the 61.8% of the August trading range at 144.624 will be eyed as a target to get to and through. On Friday, the low stalled near that level. So there is some recent history against that level.
The Bank of Canada meets at 9:45 AM, and Adam puts the chance of a 50 bp cut higher than the market. it still is a toss up but the fundamentals are there for the surprise. If they do surprice, watch a move back above 1.3592 to 1.3600 for more bullish technical bias. That would take the price back above the low of a swing area, and above the 200 day MA.