The market is 85% priced for a first Fed cut in June and economists are generally aligned with that.
The latest poll from Reuters shows 72 of 108 professional economists forecasting the first cut at the June 12 meeting. However some hawkish biases are creeping in. 38 of 44 economists say the larger risk is that fewer cuts appear in the dot plot at the March 20 meeting.
For the year as a whole, 52 of 108 economists see 75 bps or less while 26 see 100 bps.
All those numbers are liable to shift after tomorrow’s US CPI report.
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