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Little change in Fed pricing in the aftermath of the FOMC decision

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The kneejerk reaction in the FX market to the Fed decision was lower in the US dollar. That reflects tail risks that the Fed might have introduced more of a hawkish bias after strong Q3 growth numbers and stubbornly high employment.

Instead, the FOMC statement was generally left unchanged.

Pricing for the December decision remains at about 25% with the odds for January at 38%. By the end of next year, there are 75 basis points of cuts priced in. Those numbers are all unchanged from before the announcement.

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