Final Day of the Week/Month & Quarter – USD has weakened again as stocks continue to recover, led by big tech and US GDP slipped, Kashkari reconfirmed his Hawkish credentials “the FED will not be shifting the goalposts”. EUR firmed on good German inflation. Asian markets are higher after better PMI data from China and a strong set of data from Japan, NZD outperformed in Asian markets. European & US FUTS are also higher.
Overnight: China PMI’s beat (Services partic. 58.2 vs 55.0), Japan – Retail Sales (6.5% vs 5.0%), Tokyo CPI (3.2% vs 3.1%) Ind. Prod. (4.5% vs -5.3%) and even an Unemployment rise (2.6% vs 2.4%) was “good news”. UK GDP edged higger 0.1% q/q & 0.4% y/y.
- FX – USDIndex slipped to 101.72 yesterday and remains below 102.00 today having been capped at 102.50, yesterday. EUR slips under 1.0900 having traded to 1.0925. JPY continued its volatile week spiking to 133.50 on strong data as the Japanese financial year closes. 133.10 now. Sterling plotted a 40-day high yesterday at 1.2425, before receding to 1.2380 now.
- Stocks – US markets ,moved higher led by tech stocks yesterday (+0.43% to +0.73%) and are heading for a Quarterly gain #US500 closed at key 4050 – US500 FUTS also higher at 4082, holding the break & breach of 4050 resistance.
- Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied again on the weaker USD to hold over $74.00 at $74.40. Gold – rallied from $1960 once again, to test $1985 zone again.
- Cryptocurrencies – BTC could not hold $29k and trades back to the key $28k again.
Today – French CPI, Eurozone CPI, German labour market report, Canadian GDP, US PCE and core PCE, Chicago PMI, Uni. of Michigan (Final), Fed’s Collins, Williams, Barkin, Waller, Cook, ECB’s Lagarde.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.67%). Rallied from 82.500 yesterday to 83.750 today for a 5th day of gains. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 68.35, H1 ATR 0.195, Daily ATR 1.191.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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