Wall Street’s multi-day win streak came to an abrupt end Thursday after one of the worst bond auctions on record sparked a sharp selloff in Treasuries, led by the long end, and reignited concerns over who will be buyers of US debt. Also weighing on the front end were comments from Fed Chair Powell and others who pushed back against expectations for rate cuts by June.
UK: GDP stagnated in the third quarter of the year. Data for the whole quarter flagged a -4.2% contraction in business activity, and a -2.0% q/q decline in gross fixed capital formation. On top of this, while September numbers look positive, with manufacturing and construction output, survey data suggest that this bounce is not going to last, and as the BoE has admitted as well, the short term outlook is negative.
Fed: Chair Powell stressed that the FOMC will not hesitate to tighten rates further if appropriate. The same message has been sent by every other policymaker in recent sessions. That has been a very consistent message from the Fed and the Chair, whether the markets want to believe it or not. But Powell also reiterated the Fed will continue to move “carefully.” He is not confident yet that the policy is restrictive enough to hit the 2% goal.
- USDIndex stabilised and nudged up to 105.70 as Treasury yields move higher. EURUSD has corrected to 1.0660 from highs over 1.07 and Cable corrected to 1.2227. USDJPY has continued to move higher and is currently at 151.35, as markets test intervention threats.
- Stocks: Stocks tumbled into the close to finish at lows. This broke the 9-day win streak on the US100 and the 8-day streak on the US500. Stock markets remained under water during the Asian hours as well. European futures are also in the red however US futures are already showing signs of stabilisation, as investors settle for signals that in the central scenario rates have peaked not just in the US.
- Oil slightly higher to 76 area but it is headed for a 3rd weekly drop.
- Gold reverted to 1955 after a recent rally yesterday to the 1970 area as bears have taken a swing to test the resistance at 1964. Central bank officials have been pushing back against expectations of early rate cuts and yields have lifted from recent lows. This is coupled with a stabilisation in the Dollar that has undermined the appeal of non-interest bearing bullion – at least for now.
- Today: ECB Lagarde & Michigan sentiment.
Interesting Mover: GBPNZD – Down channel identified at 09-Nov-21:30. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 2.0777 within the next 20 hours.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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