Overall, it wouldn’t have been a pretty slow session if it wasn’t for the Swiss Franc selloff following the big miss in the Swiss CPI report. The market should now start to look for a 50 bps cut from the SNB in December as inflation is much lower than their latest forecasts which saw the CPI ending the year at 1.2%.
The US Dollar is mixed on the day with small gains against the commodity currencies.The British Pound is showing some life after yesterday’s selloff although there’s wasn’t any catalyst for the bounce.
The focus remains on the US elections as real money will likely want to wait for the result. Today’s NFP report is not going to change much for the market. Weak data will likely be faded due to expected distortions, while a strong reading should reaffirm the market’s view that the Fed might pause earlier than expected in 2025.
I still see the Fed cutting by 25 bps in November and December, although the Fed might deliver a hawkish
FX Heatmap