What does the Fed participants view on current conditions and economic outlook look like by topic?
Economic Growth and Consumer Spending:
- Real GDP expanded strongly in Q3, driven by a surge in consumer spending.
- Despite robust growth, aggregate demand and supply are becoming more balanced due to restrictive monetary policy and normalizing supply conditions.
- Consumer spending data has been stronger than expected, supported by a strong labor market and solid household balance sheets.
- Some participants noted a weaker consumer demand picture than indicated by aggregate data.
- Several participants suggested that repeated upside surprises in spending data could indicate sustainable momentum.
- A couple of participants theorized that households might have more financial resources than previously thought.
Labor Market:
- The labor market remains tight but has eased, partly due to recent increases in labor supply.
- Labor supply and demand are coming into better balance, with labor force participation rising, especially among women, and immigration boosting labor supply.
- Various measures indicate some easing in labor demand, including lower job openings and quits rates.
- The pace of nominal wage increases has moderated.
- A few participants noted that nominal wages are still rising at rates above levels consistent with the 2% inflation objective.
Inflation:
- Inflation has moderated over the past year but remains high and above the 2% goal.
- A period of below-potential GDP growth and further softening in labor market conditions is likely needed to reduce inflation.
- Core PCE price inflation measures have declined, but progress in reducing core services inflation excluding housing is limited.
- Longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
- Inflation continues to harm businesses and households.
Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions:
- Current monetary policy is restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation.
- All participants agreed to maintain the target interest rate at 5.25% – 5.5%.
- Financial conditions have significantly tightened, largely due to a substantial increase in longer-term Treasury yields.
- Many participants observed the rise in longer-term yields was driven by an increase in term premiums on Treasury securities.
- Some participants suggested the rise in yields might reflect expectations for a higher federal funds rate path.
- Further tightening of monetary policy may be needed if progress toward the inflation objective is insufficient.
- All participants judged that policy should remain restrictive until inflation is sustainably moving toward the objective.
Business Sector and Investment:
- Business fixed investment was flat in Q3, with conditions varying across industries and Districts.
- Some participants noted benefits for businesses from improved hiring ability, supply chains, and reduced input costs.
- A few participants reported difficulties for businesses in passing on cost increases to customers.
- Several participants commented on the resolution of the United Auto Workers strike reducing business-sector uncertainty.
- Several participants noted the impact of higher interest rates on businesses, with firms cutting or delaying investment plans.
- A few participants highlighted challenges for small businesses due to tighter financial and credit conditions.
- A few participants mentioned the impact of higher interest rates on the agricultural sector.
Risks and Uncertainties:
- Participants generally noted high uncertainty in the economic outlook.
- Upside risks to economic activity include the persistence of factors behind strong spending.
- Downside risks include larger-than-expected effects of policy tightening and tighter financial conditions.
- Upside risks to inflation include the possibility of stalled disinflation or reacceleration of inflation.
- Downside risks to economic activity include potential disruptions to global oil markets.
- Most participants continued to see upside risks to inflation.
- Many participants noted downside risks to economic activity, including potential effects on aggregate demand and the CRE sector.
This organization provides a clearer understanding of the various aspects discussed by the participants, including growth, employment, inflation, monetary policy, business sector, and the overall economic risks and uncertainties.