El-Erian is Allianz chief economic adviser. He wrote an op-ed in the Financial Times (gated).
Business Insider highlight his main points from the FT piece:
Two reasons why America’s odds of avoiding a recession may be dwindling
- Yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond have jumped an “eye-popping” percentage point since the end of the June
- Resulting in higher rates for firms and houselholds, while mortgage rateshave hit a 23-year high
2. Resurgent inflation
- Inflation re-accelerated in August to 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the 3.2% reported in July.
- “Adding fuel to this fire are high prices for oil amid solid demand, continued production cuts by OPEC+ and heavily depleted inventories. There is a material risk of this leading to higher inflation for a broader range of goods and services”