Morgan Stanley are forecasting ECB rate cuts of 25bp at the next four meetings:
- October 17, 2024
- December 12. 2024
- January 30. 2025
- March 6, 2025
MS say this’ll take the ECB rate to 2.5% and close to neutral.
Being close to neutral will then slow the next serious of rate cuts from the Bank. MS forecasts 25bp rate cuts to follow in June, September and December 2025.
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Given the uncertainty and fluidity in economies and geopolitics these calls out to Q2 and H2 of 2025 deserve a medal for bravery!