The latest from the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, for August 2023.
Up 1.6% m/m to 85.0 and still deeply pessimistic
- July was -2.1% to 83.7
ANZ note two key points:
- Consumer confidence rose 1 point in August to 85.0, with the lift driven
by an increase in the question of whether it’s a good time to buy a
major household item, which rose from -39% to -31%.
- Inflation expectations were virtually unchanged at 4.6%.
More on those inflation expectations in the survey:
- inflation expectations remain stuck at levels inconsistent with the
inflation target, but are at least pointing in the right direction. - Consumers
get the forecasting prize for picking the surge in CPI inflation well before
anyone else did, so it’s worth paying attention to what they think on the
way down as well. - Consumer expectations will also matter for wages,
though to what extent depends on labour market tightness. - Overall,
consumer inflation expectations are consistent with our belief that while a
fall in CPI inflation to 4-5% is pretty much baked in at this point, ongoing
progress from there remains very much a matter of conjecture and debate.