Nomura are tipping a still higher US dollar, citing
- the September “Higher for longer” rates viewpointof the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
- and continued equity and bond outflows from China to persist in pressuring the yuan
Nomura see a higher USD/CNH, and this is likely to spread more widely to feed through to higher USD/Asia.
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JP Morgan are also remaining bearish CNH, pointing to:
- markets remain with concerns over China’s prospects for economic growth
- recent data has not been “constructive” – JPM point out that the Caixin Services PMI fell to its lowest since December 2022
- recent property sector developments also worrying
- PBOC stimulus efforts haven’t moved the needle much higher for the yuan
JPM continue to recommend long USD/CNH.
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Updating the offshore yuan: