Swing Trade Plan for NVDA on NFP Friday
Fading the Up Move – A Short-Term Short Strategy
Trade Thesis for NVDA Today
NVIDIA (NVDA) has delivered its rebound after the noisy DeepSeek saga, and with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) hitting the markets today, we anticipate increased volatility. If NVDA rallies just a little more to fill the sell orders mentioned below, this could present a interesting short opportunity for a short-term fade before a potential retracement, in my opinion.
The goal is to fade any move higher, entering short positions in a structured manner across key levels. The strategy assumes NVDA might push higher initially due to momentum but will struggle to sustain the move, leading to a pullback, due to some heavy institutional level resistance and liquadity in the $131.25 – $133.25 range.
Trade Setup – Shorting the Pop
We are using a tiered short-selling approach, entering at different price levels to average into the position *
* This example uses 150 shares if all 3 sell orders get filled; adjust position size as needed. But keep the proportions, selling x, 2x, and lastly 3x.
| Sell Order # | Price | Shares | % of Position Budget | Avg. Weighted Price | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | $131.12 | 25 | 16.67% | $131.12 | No Stop |
| 20 | $132.20 | 50 | 33.33% | $131.84 | No Stop |
| 30 | $133.66 | 75 | 50.00% | $132.75 | $135.41 |
| Position Size | $19,913 | 150 | 100% allocated | $132.75 (Weighted Average) | $135.41 |
Trade Execution Plan for this Short-Term NVDA Short
-
Short Entry Approach:
- First short order triggers at $131.12 (smallest allocation).
- Second short order triggers at $132.20 (moderate allocation).
- Final short order triggers at $133.66 (largest allocation), reaching full position.
-
Stop Loss Strategy:
- No stop loss for the first two partial positions.
- Hard stop for the full position at $135.41 (2.0% above the weighted entry).
-
Take-Profit Target:
- Exit at $125.45 (5.5% downside from entry).
- This offers a 2.75 risk-reward ratio, meaning we target $7.30/share vs. a max risk of $2.66/share.
Trade Risk & Market Context
- NFP Impact: Non-Farm Payrolls release can drive broader market volatility. NVDA may initially follow the Nasdaq’s reaction, making intraday moves unpredictable.
- Post-Earnings Exhaustion: NVDA has already seen major earnings-related price swings. If momentum fades, a short entry on a rally could provide an ideal risk-reward setup.
- Tech Sector Correlation: If Nasdaq shows relative weakness post-NFP, NVDA could follow with a downside move.
- In any case, we are playing the price action and liquadity levels here, not the news
- I wouldn’t hang on too long to this short, this is a short term trade idea.
Trade NVDA at Your Own Risk
This short-term swing trade is based on the expectation of a post-earnings rally fade, with the assumption that NVDA may struggle to hold higher levels. Given the volatility of both earnings reactions and macroeconomic events like NFP, risk management is crucial. Always adjust position sizing according to your risk tolerance.
🚨 Trade at your own risk. Always do your own research and assess market conditions before execution. 🚨 Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.