Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD has been mired in an up-and-down trading range for a number of weeks. Looking at the 4-hour chart below, the value area (area where most of the price action has taken place) of the price action over the last 5/6 weeks has been between 0.5879 and 0.5996. Yes, there have been extremes up to 0.60146 and down to 0.5858, but the vast majority of the price action has been in the “red box” on the chart below.
Today, the low price stalled against the low of the lower swing area near 0.58945. Yesterday the high price stalled near the low of the upper swing area near 0.5985.
The current price has clawed its way back above the 100-bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.5919 (blue line in the chart below), but has so far stalled ahead of the 200 bar moving average at 0.59433.
That puts the price in a neutral area with neither buyers nor sellers in control, but each waiting for a move outside of the moving average levels.
Dip buyers from earlier today looking for more upside want to see that 200 bar moving average broken at 0.5943. Conversely, sellers against the 200 bar moving average now want to see the 100 bar moving average broken at 0.5913.
Ultimately, there will be a break outside of the red box with momentum in the direction of the break. As time goes on the chances of that break increase. So be on the lookout. Be aware. Be prepared. For now, the up-and-down traders are leaning against the aforementioned levels and hoping for the steps higher or lower.
NZDUSD is trading between 100/200 bar MAs