Oil daily
WTI crude oil is up $2.58 to $76.44 today in its best day since November.
Oil was hit hard last week on reports of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire but those reports proved to be wrong and oil has been slow to recover. Israel’s president said the war will take ‘months’, which further raises the chance of spreading violence in the Middle East.
More fundamentally, US inventories have been building slowly this winter ahead of the spring/summer driving season. US and global growth is also proving more resilient and there are early signs that China may be concerned about slow growth. OPEC has remained unified so far and it looks as though sanctions on Venezuela will soon return.
Seasonally, there is a strong tailwind for crude that begins in mid-February and continues into early March.
Stepping back, I think WTI would have to get above $80 to generate any real momentum but there is a decent series of higher lows on the chart that is constructive.
Importantly, I suspect higher oil would feedback into broader markets and create a sense of fear around inflation that could push up bond yields and hurt risk assets.