Via Reuters, the results of their latest poll on what is expected from the European Central Bank.
- all 75 analysts surveyed expect a July +25bp rate hike (the meeting is July 27)
- just over half of those surveyed also expect a September rate hike from the Bank
- 35 of 75 predict no more hikes, 40 see
another 25 basis point rise in September
- 35 of 75 predict no more hikes, 40 see
“July is pretty much a given, they’ve communicated they
will hike and it’s not going to be a surprise to anyone. The
question is whether they will have to hike in September or not,”
said Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank. “For the next meeting, communication is going to be the most
difficult part…a hold or a hike, they will probably keep it
open. It is going to be a close call either way.”