A note from Oxford Economics cited by Dow Jones / Market Watch. The chief US economist at the analyst firm says that bond and stock market moves in November, the big rallies in each, has made financial conditions much looser again:
- “The decline in yields and surge in equity prices more than fully unwinds the tightening in conditions seen since the September FOMC meeting”
- expects the Fed next week to “push back against the idea that rate cuts could come onto the agenda anytime soon,” but also to “err on the side of leaving rates high for too long.”
- and says that may translate into a first rate cut not until September 2024
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet next week, December 12 and 13. The overwhelming market consensus is for an on-hold policy decision for Fed Funds in the 5.25 to 5.5% range.
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The FOMC meetings in 2024: