- 94 of 97 economists see no Fed change this month
- 58 of 87 see Fed waiting until at least end of March before cutting
- Bigger risk is that first Fed cut comes later than expected, according to 23 of 28 economists
- 17 of 97 economists expected at least one more hike before year end
- Poll sees unemployment rate averaging 4.3% in 2024
There’s a big conflict between what the Fed is staying and markets are pricing. They continually talk about higher for longer but markets and economists simply don’t believe them. If the Fed gets stubborn — and I think there’s a good chance with oil at $90 — that will be a problem for markets.